The hottest international oil price continues to r

2022-08-14
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The international oil price continued to rise. Experts suggested that the market-oriented reform of the oil industry

after touching the record high of $135 a barrel, the international oil price began to turn down. In a short week, it fell back to $124.67 a barrel, down nearly 7% -

when the international oil price touched the record high of $135 a barrel, a series of countermeasures followed. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently announced that it would investigate the possible manipulation of the crude oil market due to the recent abnormal rise in oil prices. At the same time, some new economies began to reduce or even eliminate fuel subsidies

these measures to combat speculation in the oil market seem to have achieved certain results. However, will $135 really become the inflection point of oil prices

not speculation

for the rise in oil prices, OPEC president Keller attributed the main reason for the rise in oil prices to market speculation. In his view, all these reasons are beyond OPEC's control. "If OPEC decides to increase production, these increased production will not really reduce oil prices."

at the same time, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's investigation into the abnormal rise in oil prices also pointed at speculation. However, is this round of rise in international oil prices really caused by speculation

at the Shanghai derivatives market forum held in Shanghai recently, some insiders generally believed that even if there were speculators, this was not the main reason for the high oil prices. In the process of speculation, speculative funds have never left the main line of tight supply and demand fundamentals. If we leave the most basic relationship between supply and demand, the risk of speculation will also be greatly increased

Shan Weiguo, director of the Petroleum Market Research Institute of CNPC, believes that it is a kind of fixed assets to promote the research, development, implementation and utilization of various new technologies and processes. Rising demand and insufficient supply are still the main driving force for the rise in oil prices. Although since this year, due to the decline in economic growth, oil demand from the United States has shown negative growth. However, the economic growth of developing countries is still strong, and its driving effect on oil demand cannot be underestimated. According to statistics, since this year, the daily growth of world oil demand of 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels has all come from developing countries. On the other hand, as the upstream production cost has increased by 100% in the past three years, the growth of global oil production is far behind the growth of demand. At the same time, OPEC refused to increase production due to concerns that the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis would affect future economic growth and crude oil demand, which also restricted oil supply to a certain extent

however, in addition to the most basic contradiction between supply and demand, the depreciation of the US dollar stimulates demand, which is also a factor that cannot be ignored in raising oil prices. According to Shan Weiguo's analysis, the US dollar has started to fall since 2002. Since September 18 last year, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates seven times in a row, falling to the current 2%, resulting in a sharp depreciation of the US dollar, which has been about 60% lower than that in 2002. The depreciation of the US dollar, on the one hand, directly pushed up the international oil price denominated in US dollars. More importantly, the depreciation also made the actual structural yield of the company increase by 2.02 percentage points and 1.76 percentage points respectively in 2016 and 2017, which eventually led to the decline of oil supply and further stimulated the rise of oil prices

the inflection point has not yet appeared

since the main reason for the rise in international oil prices is not speculation, these measures to suppress speculation in the oil market are not enough to fundamentally change the trend of international oil prices. Industry insiders believe that as long as the tight market supply situation is not broken, the rising momentum of oil prices will not be exhausted

from the perspective of this year, although the current international oil price has fallen back after hitting a record high of $135 per barrel, most experts believe that the correction is only temporary, and the international oil price is still bullish in the second half of the year

reason 1: with the arrival of June, the global seasonal oil consumption peak will also come, which is one of the reasons why oil prices return to the rising channel in the short term. According to the prediction of relevant institutions, the daily growth of global oil demand in the third quarter of this year will reach 64 (2) million barrels with protection functions such as overload, overcurrent, overvoltage, upper and lower limits of displacement and emergency stop. According to the hurricane forecast of Colorado State University, there may be 15 storms and 8 hurricanes in the Atlantic hurricane season this year, including many strong hurricanes. And the probability of a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast is 44%. Climate uncertainty may also become a factor for higher oil prices in the future

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