The hottest export to solve PVC overcapacity

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Export to solve PVC overcapacity

in the first half of this year, the domestic PVC (polyvinyl chloride) market was at a low tide. From January to the end of February, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and the sluggish downstream demand, the PVC market fluctuated and fell, and the price per ton once fell below 6000 yuan. Since March, the downstream market has successively entered the peak processing season, and the PVC price has increased slightly by 100 ~ 150 yuan 20.0/ton. From April to June, the demand of downstream products industry has not recovered significantly, and the rise of PVC has been blocked, turning to the consolidation state

in the first half of the year, the overall product sales of domestic PVC enterprises were poor, the inventory increased, the operating rate decreased, and the pressure of loss increased. Although the effect of the national macro-control policy gradually appeared, the production and operation of enterprises still faced great difficulties

the downstream demand is not strong, and the problem of idle production capacity is prominent.

in the first half of this year, due to the weak demand and the serious problem of "alkali chlorine balance", the operating rate of PVC production enterprises is still low, the price hovers low, and the sales are in the state of "de Stocking"

affected by the financial crisis, the operating rate of downstream areas of caustic soda such as chemical industry, steel, papermaking, electrolytic aluminum, textile printing and dyeing has been significantly insufficient this year, especially the load thermal deformation temperature reached 260 ℃, and the operating rate of papermaking and electrolytic aluminum industries, which once supported the high operation of the caustic soda market, has decreased significantly, reducing the demand for caustic soda. As a by-product of PVC enterprises, caustic soda products are mostly 32% and 50% lye, which cannot be stored in large quantities for a long time. The shrinking demand for caustic soda forced PVC enterprises to reduce production load

pvc, as the main chlorine consuming product, determines the economic benefits of chlor alkali enterprises to a large extent. The downturn of PVC market has a great impact on the development of enterprises. Since the second quarter, although the downturn in the PVC market has eased, the difficulties in caustic soda sales of chlor alkali enterprises have affected the PVC operating rate and the overall economic benefits of chlor alkali enterprises to a certain extent

under this situation, the idle problem of PVC production capacity is more prominent. According to China's chlor alkali statistics, the total domestic PVC output from January to May this year was 3.44 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. In terms of exports, the cumulative export volume of PVC pure powder from January to May was 26100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 92.2%

impacted by low costs, a large influx of imported products

since the fourth quarter of last year, due to the sharp fall in international crude oil prices, the cost of foreign ethylene PVC has been reduced, and a large number of imported PVC has poured into the domestic market, especially the general trade mode that was restricted by anti-dumping in previous years and could not enter the domestic market has revived, crowding out the domestic market share, which is even worse for the originally depressed domestic market this year

about 75% of domestic PVC manufacturers use calcium carbide as the main raw material, and the current decline in the price of calcium carbide is far less than that of crude oil and ethylene. The price of domestic calcium carbide fell by about 25% compared with the peak price last year, while the price of crude oil fell by more than 50% in the same period, even more than 60% at one time. Unable to compete with imported Vinyl PVC, Chinese PVC manufacturers have taken measures to reduce the operating rate or shutdown, which makes the current average operating rate of the domestic PVC industry only 50% - 60%

according to statistics, from January to April, China imported a total of 12838 tons of pvc8, an increase of 101.85% year-on-year. Among them, the imported PVC pure powder was 758700 tons, with a sharp increase of 141.27% year-on-year. From January to may, the cumulative import volume of PVC pure powder was 915500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 153.96%

the futures market promoted development, and exports returned to dawn

on May 25, PVC futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange were listed. Since then, in addition to the spot market, when the requirements for system stiffness are not high, and the next generation of heat and oil resistance with required standards and the mechanical properties usually provided by rubber are used, the production enterprises have another trading channel, and can add a tool to effectively control operational and market risks through the development of futures hedging business. Relying on the futures platform, PVC enterprises can improve their voice in the international market and realize the common development and prosperity of futures and spot markets. With the gradual maturity of the futures market and the increasing participation of all parties, the influence of PVC futures on the spot market is gradually increasing, and more PVC manufacturers pay attention to the futures market

on the whole, the PVC market will still face great pressure in the future. Industry integration, overcapacity, import shock, sluggish demand and other issues are still the problems that the industry needs to face

judging from the situation of newly expanded units, due to the influence of market, capital, technology and other factors, most of the projects planned to be put into operation are delayed, and the total production capacity will not change significantly, while some enterprises that have stopped production for a long time will face the risk of being eliminated and integrated; In terms of market, the relationship between supply and demand is still the key to determine the market trend. The domestic market demand is relatively stable, and the foreign market still needs to be restored; In terms of export, due to the obvious overcapacity of PVC in China, we must adhere to the road of export and export. With the increase of export tax rebate and the recovery of international crude oil prices, the cost advantage of domestic calcium carbide PVC will reappear, and the export of PVC will also reappear

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