Is the export situation good or bad? Authoritative departments have different opinions
export growth has fallen to single digits
is the export form optimistic or pessimistic in the second half of the year? In late July, the industry believed that the issue seemed to be very important the night before the textile export tax rebate callback. However, there are still great differences in the judgments from authoritative departments. On Tuesday, Vice Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng said that he was optimistic about exports; Yesterday, the finance and Economic Commission of the National People's Congress also said that the tightening economic environment at home and abroad and policy adjustments have a superimposed effect, which makes China's export situation face severe challenges
the diametrically opposite views of the Ministry of Commerce and the financial and Economic Commission of the National People's Congress on the export trend have also attracted widespread attention in the industry. Yesterday, this newspaper interviewed some government officials and professionals in Beijing on this issue. Most people still believe that the future export trend may not be as optimistic as predicted by the Ministry of Commerce. They call on the government and enterprises to jointly cope with the cold winter encountered by export enterprises
according to the customs data, China's exports increased by 21.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate slowed down by 5.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year. However, according to long Guoqiang, Vice Minister of the Foreign Economic Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, "export growth has actually fallen to single digits." In an interview with this newspaper, he said: "in the first half of this year, the export growth rate in dollar terms was 21.9%, and the export growth rate in RMB terms was 11.2%. If we deduct the factor of domestic inflation, we can see that China carefully recorded the actual export growth rate in the first half of this year, which has reached single digits."
the data from the finance and Economic Commission of the National People's Congress also said that in the first five months, exports increased by 22.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.9 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. If taking into account the factors that the RMB depreciated domestically and appreciated against the US dollar, the actual growth of exports fell faster
enterprises may suffer more in the second half of the year
for the export situation in the second half of the year, long Guoqiang said, "it has been very serious and will continue to deteriorate in the second half of the year." He explained that the impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has not passed, and the global economic crisis is deepening. Affected by the depreciation of the US dollar, the EU economy is also declining as a whole
yesterday, the report of the financial and Economic Commission of the National People's Congress also pointed out the current difficulties of enterprises: some labor-intensive industries will be more impacted. National clothing exports have shown a negative growth of 0.64% year-on-year in May. With the sharp decline in export growth, the benefits of many export-oriented enterprises have decreased significantly, and some even fell into a state of loss
not only that, the domestic production costs of export enterprises have increased, mainly due to the rising prices of raw materials and corporate financing difficulties. Not only that, for the policy of reducing the tax rebate for exports with a target weight of only 138 pounds implemented last year, long believed that "the foreign trade policy formulated last year is now out of place, and its role is becoming more and more obvious."
however, as a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, Mei Xinyu did not agree with long. In his view, from the data point of view, although the export growth is slowing down, it is still growing, and not all sectors' export growth is declining
"for some export departments with high-tech content, their export situation is still very good." Mei Xinyu told that although some labor-intensive enterprises have poor exports, we should look at China's export trend as a whole
there are still objections to the tax rebate callback
"although the overall export situation is relatively good, it is extremely pessimistic for some labor-intensive enterprises such as the textile industry." A person in charge of the China Textile chamber of Commerce said to
"the callback of export tax rebate has reached the point of urgency." Long Guoqiang told, "I hope to see relevant policies come out." At present, the most urgent policies include raising export tax rebates and solving the financing difficulties of enterprises. He said, "I don't see any other way except to introduce a short-term policy of half a year to one year."
the finance and Economics Committee of the National People's Congress also proposed in yesterday's report that China's textile, clothing, toys and other industries with outstanding advantages that can effectively alleviate employment pressure, especially some high-end products, should consider giving certain policy preferences
however, it is still found in the interview that there are still many views that do not agree with helping export enterprises through the power of the government. Zhaoyumin, director of the international market department of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, previously said in an interview with this newspaper that export enterprises should not hope to rely on the support of government policies to tide over the difficulties, but should actively adapt to market changes through their own adjustment, eliminate backward production capacity that issues test reports, carry out industrial upgrading, and resist market risks
however, long Guoqiang did not agree with Zhao. He believed that the government should pay special attention to the strength when issuing policies. "We should promote industrial upgrading without putting too much pressure on enterprises." long also agreed that enterprises should rely on their own strength to overcome difficulties. However, he still said, "industrial upgrading is indeed a general direction, but first we should let enterprises survive and then upgrade."
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