Analysis on the development and market changes of

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Analysis on the development and changes of China's glass market

in recent years, the overall situation of float glass industry is relatively severe. This is mainly due to the rapid growth of glass production capacity and the increase of inventory pressure year by year, which shows that the data has not been shaken or the serious decline in prices caused by the obvious lagging feeling of the data. At the same time, it is also facing two major pressures: one is the pressure of the sharp rise of major raw materials such as heavy oil, coal tar, natural gas and soda ash, and the other is the pressure of the state to regulate and control the real estate industry to compress demand. So, will this year be a turning point? What will happen to the market

the three major demands are fine tuned in situ

the real estate industry, automobile industry and export are the three major demand directions of China's glass and glass products. Yangxiaoqiang, an analyst at Changjiang futures, pointed out that 70% of the products of the glass industry are used for construction. The change in demand for both real estate and infrastructure is the biggest factor that directly affects the glass industry

although real estate has been affected by regulatory policies, market confidence does not seem to be very high, according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to April 2013, the national real estate development investment and housing sales data have achieved a certain growth, with year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 38% respectively. The investment in real estate development has increased for two months year-on-year. The registration of Shanxi supervision engineers has maintained a growth rate of more than 20% this year. For this data, which seems not to be affected by the regulation policy, the impact of these two data on glass prices is different. The data of real estate investment more affect the trend of glass prices next year, The cumulative growth rate of commercial housing sales area generally has a greater impact on the price after 3-4 months than the cost. Glass prices have a seasonal pattern. The peak season of glass demand is generally from May to November. If combined with the data of commercial housing sales area, it is speculated that the price may continue to rise from July to September

as for the reasons, Wu Wenhai said that the growth of investment data is mainly due to the recovery of the real estate market and the acceleration of investment by real estate enterprises. The growth of sales data is mainly affected by rigid demand, because the purchase restriction policy has restrained speculative demand. Although the release is large, the total amount and pace are relatively stable

in recent years, due to the recession of the international economy, the export data of the glass industry has not been very ideal. Although China's total import and export value from January to April this year increased by 14% year-on-year after deducting the exchange rate factor (data from the Ministry of Commerce), yangxiaoqiang, an analyst of Changjiang futures, said that in fact, the impact on the glass industry is not great, which is basically the same as last year

from January to April this year, the year-on-year growth of automobile production and sales remained at more than 10%, and the demand for glass belonged to a steady growth trend. Chen Xiaofei, director of China Glass information, believed that this trend did not have much impact on the current glass industry. As for the sharp decline in the sales of luxury cars since last year, director Chen said that China has been in a stage of short supply of high-end automotive glass, so the impact on the glass industry can be said to be zero

the pressure continues, and the demand for glass has hardly changed. The glass weekly report on May 12 from Changjiang futures shows that in terms of production capacity, 500 tons of glass have been produced in the fourth line of cold repair and resumption line of China Resources, 1000 tons of glass have been produced in the third line of Jingzhou Yijun new line, and the actual melting capacity of the first line of Xianning South Glass Co., Ltd., which has been ignited some time ago, is 1200 tons; The second line is 700 tons and has not been ignited. Chen Xiaofei also said that the glass production capacity increased by 8.4% from January to April this year

at present, China's existing urbanization development mode is mainly land urbanization. The national 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015) requires that China's urbanization rate be increased by at least 4 percentage points, which means that the annual new glass consumption is about 136million weight boxes. However, overcapacity and inventory pressure still exist

at present, the glass inventory of manufacturing enterprises is 28.34 million weight boxes, reaching the low point after the Spring Festival. Yang Xiaoqiang, an analyst, believes that this is just because it is now the seasonal peak sales season for glass, which is at a fluctuating high value. In the long run, if the demand changes little, the pressure on inventory will continue to exist. However, Wu Wenhai believes that the impact of urbanization on prices will be positive on the whole. With the steady rise of prices, the production lines that were shut down or not ignited in the early stage will be started one after another, and the overall glass price will rise steadily in 2013

as for the argument that the price of raw materials for glass has been rising in recent years, which has seriously devoured the profits of glass manufacturers to a certain extent, Wu Wenhai gave a different answer. He said that he had discussed this problem with manufacturers. Glass prices are mainly affected by the sale of downstream commercial housing, which is often accepted by buyers. In the case of industry depression, manufacturers can only passively accept it most of the time, Therefore, when glass enterprises suffer serious losses, the cost of heavy oil and soda ash stands at about 80% of the price of glass products. In fact, the fault is not raw materials. In addition, the manufacturers in the South and North are also different. For example, coal is mainly used in Shahe area. At present, the price of raw materials still maintains a downward trend, and the price proportion of glass cost stations is constantly decreasing

hedging to avoid risks

the operation of glass prices has a strong regularity. Generally speaking, in the first quarter, because the market is in the winter storage season, affected by the cold weather, the terminal construction works basically stagnated, and the processing plants started rarely, resulting in little demand. Most of the market transactions are dealers' winter storage and purchase, the manufacturers' shipments are slow, the inventory is generally high, and the price fell to the lowest point in the year when the full fixture design is unfair. From April to may, with the temperature rising, processing plants began to operate one after another, demand gradually warmed up, manufacturers' shipments improved, inventories slowly digested, and prices rebounded. In late June, the price basically rose to the highest level after the year. With the arrival of high temperature and rainy weather, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods has weakened, the enthusiasm of the market has cooled, the trading has become increasingly light, and the price has fallen into a stalemate and consolidation. From August to October, the golden nine silver ten effect gradually appeared, and the glass price rebounded again, but the end of October will enter the winter break of real estate, and the increase will not be too large. From November to December, affected by the shutdown of real estate and the sluggish end consumption, prices began to fall comprehensively

this year, the economic operation of glass has not changed much from that of last year. Traders can basically follow the general trend of last year to buy futures, so that when buying in the spot market in the future, they will not cause economic losses to themselves due to rising prices, or sell futures. When the spot price is posted, the profits of the futures market will make up for the losses of the spot market. Chen Xiaofei reminded that glass futures, as a financial tool to avoid risks, like other futures, is mainly to help both parties with spot trading scale risks. For manufacturers, it is the role of hedging, and for traders, it is to avoid the risks brought by price fluctuations

the glass price in early May showed strong performance. Yang Xiaoqiang said that the China glass composite index on May 10 was 1069.42 points, up 5.64 points from last week; China glass price index 1044.05 points, up 6.14 points from last week; China Glass confidence index was 1170.92 points, up 3.66 points from last week. The reason for the rebound in futures prices was due to some funds' entry arbitrage

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